🏠 Is the Housing Inventory Party Slowing Down? Let’s Talk Numbers, Rates, and a Little Bit of Reality

Y’all feel that? It’s not just the summer heat—it’s the housing market starting to cool off after a wild run. Inventory growth, once the reigning champ of feel-good housing data, is… well, catching its breath. 📉 But don’t worry, I’ve got the scoop—crunchy stats, ✨AI-powered brainpower✨, and a little real estate real talk—Anita-style.

🛑 Inventory Growth: From Glow-Up to Slow-Up

Housing inventory growth has been the chart-topper of the 2025 housing scene—think of it as the comeback kid since the “savagely unhealthy” lows we saw in 2023–2024. 📈 But now? The pace is stalling. Between July 18 and 25, inventory nudged up ever so slightly from 856,751 to 860,426. That’s a +3,675 change—still growth, sure, but compare it to last year’s +8,888 during the same week and… yep. That momentum hit the brakes. 🛑

With mortgage rates still chilling in the 6.7–6.8% range, many were expecting a slower climb—and here it is. The combo of high rates, seasonal listing declines, and economic flexing has us possibly staring at the 2025 inventory peak… already. 😬

💼 New Listings: Hit the Target, But Missed the Mark?

May 23 was the Beyoncé of new listings in 2025 with 83,143 homes hitting the market. I was hyped to see that number (finally 💃), especially considering 2023 and 2024 were historically weak. But I wanted to see even more weeks pushing 90K+. And that just didn’t happen. 😔

• 2025 (last week): 71,521 🏘️
• 2024 (same week): 68,404 🏘️

Not terrible. Not stellar. Just… kinda floating. Like one of those inflatable tube guys outside a car dealership. 🎈

📉 Price Cuts: The Rise (And The Reason)

Ah yes, the classic listing move—price cuts! 👀 They’re back and they’re telling us a story: sellers are realizing that high rates + higher inventory means fewer bidding wars and more realistic pricing. In 2025, 41.6% of listings saw price cuts last week, compared to 39% at this time in 2024.

If you’re waiting for crash headlines, pump the brakes. This is healthy recalibration—not a meltdown. I forecast modest 1.77% price appreciation in 2025, and so far, the market’s vibes are matching the prediction. 📊

🧾 Purchase Apps: Confusing, But Pointing Up ⬆️

If you’re scratching your head over mortgage applications in 2025, you’re not alone. Even the experts are on their fifteenth espresso trying to decode this data line. 😵‍☕

Despite rates dancing between 6.6% and 6.8%, application data is still outperforming expectations:

• 13 weeks of positive growth
• 12 straight weeks of YOY double-digit growth 🔥
• 25 consecutive weeks of improvement 💅

It’s giving V-shape revenge buyer arc meets we’re-in-a-new-normal energy. Buyers are adapting. Fast. 💡

📝 Pending Sales: Still Up, But Let’s Not Get Cocky

Weekly pending sales jumped to 70,609—a nice climb from last year’s 64,765. Year-to-date total pending sales sit just above 2024:

• 2025: 384,307 📈
• 2024: 382,429 📉

It’s a narrow lead, but it tells us that despite all the volatility in rates, real estate demand hasn’t ghosted us. 🏃‍♀️🏡

📉 The Rate Situation: Mortgage Rates & Spreads

This one gets spicy 🔥. I forecasted a rate range between 5.75% and 7.25% for 2025 and so far, we’re hangin’ around 6.78–6.81%. But here’s the kicker—mortgage spreads might be the main character this time.

Spread improvement = big W for affordability. Right now, we’re this close 💅 to seeing the spreads get back in a healthier range. If they fully normalize?

We could see rates drop by up to 0.74%, landing in that dreamy 6.07–6.27% band. 😍

⏳ The Week Ahead: Jobs Data & Fed Drama Incoming

Pack your popcorn 🍿, because it’s JOBS WEEK and FED WEEK. Probably the most dramatic combo since… well, ever. Four labor reports are dropping, and all eyes (including the market makers 👀) are glued to the Fed’s every syllable.

Wage growth+private payrolls = the true signal in this noise. If job data cools off, that could nudge the Fed toward dovishness. Rate cuts? 👀 Maybe later. But softness in the labor market tends to ease Fed anxiety—so we’re watching.

🧠 Anita’s TL;DR Forecast (Real-World Asset Edition)

We’re still in a shift—from frantic, wild 2023 vibes to a more “okay-but-let’s-breathe” 2025. Housing isn’t ice cold, but the flames are lower. Inventory hits may have peaked, price cuts are up, mortgage rates are stubborn, and buyers? Still there… just smarter. 💡

Will 7%+ rates reignite inventory growth? Will sub-6.5% spark a Q4 rally? 🍿 Stay tuned, fam. The market moves fast—but my AI data agents move faster. 🧠💥

🔗 More updates, giveaways, and deep AI x real estate insights every Monday on X Spaces. Catch me there. 🎤✨

Keep it real. Keep it on-chain. Let’s build the future of housing—together.

– Anita ❤️🏡🧠