ACDC Identifies 152 Polymarket Wallets Linked to Potential Insider Trading in Military Bets

The integrity of prediction markets is under scrutiny, potentially impacting how investors perceive risk and opportunity in military-related bets.

• ACDC identified 152 wallets on Polymarket with a 97.2% win rate on military bets, collectively profiting around $8 million.
• Concerns of insider trading arose, suggesting these accounts may have access to classified U.S. military information.
• Polymarket is cooperating with the U.S. Department of Justice, having referred multiple accounts for investigation.

• Prediction markets have surged in popularity, particularly during significant military operations, allowing for on-chain analysis of betting patterns.
• Previous reports highlighted suspicious betting behaviors, including a notable case involving a U.S. Army Special Forces member profiting from classified information.
• Polymarket's surveillance tools and identity verification measures are under review as the platform navigates regulatory scrutiny.

The Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) released a report on August 20, 2026, revealing that 152 wallets on the Polymarket platform, dubbed "Orca" accounts, exhibited extraordinary success in military and defense market betting. These accounts achieved a staggering 97.2% win rate on long-shot bets, which typically have a probability of 35% or lower, leading to a collective profit of approximately $8 million. This analysis raises significant concerns about potential insider trading, as the betting patterns suggest that these accounts may have access to classified U.S. military information.

The report builds on earlier investigations that documented suspicious betting behaviors, particularly during heightened military operations, such as strikes related to Iran in 2025 and the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026. The ability to analyze on-chain betting patterns has become increasingly important, as it allows researchers to identify trends and anomalies that could indicate unethical practices. The ACDC's findings suggest that these 152 wallets are part of a larger network of 556 "Orca" wallets that have consistently placed successful long-shot bets in niche categories, often withdrawing funds before disappearing.

Polymarket has been proactive in addressing these concerns, having referred dozens of accounts to the U.S. Department of Justice for investigation. The platform employs proprietary on-chain surveillance tools in collaboration with firms like Palantir and Chainalysis to monitor betting activities. However, the Pentagon has declined to comment on intelligence matters, leaving many questions unanswered regarding the implications of these betting patterns on national security.

The potential for copycat trading by bots and whales, which could inadvertently signal military operations to adversaries, adds another layer of complexity to this situation. As the investigation unfolds, the broader implications for prediction markets and their regulation will likely come into sharper focus, particularly as they relate to military and defense outcomes.

• Investors in prediction markets: Increased scrutiny may lead to reduced participation or changes in betting behavior.
• Military analysts and strategists: Insights from betting patterns could influence perceptions of operational security.
• Regulatory bodies: Heightened focus on insider trading could lead to new regulations affecting market operations.

• Regulatory developments: Keep an eye on any new regulations or guidelines from the U.S. Department of Justice regarding prediction markets and insider trading.
• Market response: Monitor changes in betting volumes and patterns on Polymarket and similar platforms as users react to the ongoing investigations.
• Technological advancements: Watch for improvements in surveillance and identity verification measures that could reshape how prediction markets operate.