Iran's Control Over Strait of Hormuz Highlighted as Strategic Leverage at Abu Dhabi Forum

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil and trade, influencing energy prices and economic stability.

• Experts warned at the Hili Forum in Abu Dhabi that Iran can control the Strait of Hormuz without physically closing it.
• Iran's tactics include selective threats and elevated insurance costs, affecting commercial shipping traffic.
• Regional tensions have escalated following conflicts involving Iran, the US, and Israel, prompting calls for enhanced maritime security.

• Approximately 20% of global oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz, making it vital for energy markets.
• Recent incidents have led to a nearly 90% collapse in transit volumes due to missile strikes and increased inspections.
• Gulf states are adapting by diversifying supply chains and investing in alternative routes to mitigate risks.

The panel discussion on September 8, 2026, at the Hili Forum highlighted Iran's strategic maneuvering in the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing its ability to exert influence without resorting to a full blockade. Experts noted that Iran has adopted a playbook similar to that of the Houthis in the Red Sea, using selective threats to control vessel passage. This tactic allows Iran to maintain its strategic advantage while avoiding actions that could harm its own economic interests.

Allison Minor, a maritime security expert, pointed out that Iran's approach involves elevating commercial risks rather than outright closures. This has resulted in increased war-risk insurance premiums and a significant decline in commercial traffic through the Strait. Dr. Mary Papaschinopoulou highlighted specific incidents, such as a projectile attack on a vessel departing Fujairah, which underscores the broader risks to cargo and crew safety.

Dr. Jens Hillebrand Pohl discussed how chokepoints arise from economic concentration and dependencies, extending beyond geography to sectors like semiconductors. This means that the implications of Iran's control are not limited to oil but could affect various industries reliant on stable shipping routes. Dr. Li-Chen Sim noted that Gulf states are adapting by investing in alternative loading facilities and fleet ownership, which could reshape regional trade dynamics.

Dr. Inna Rudolf emphasized that Iran's leverage is not just about military might but also involves using non-state actors for plausible deniability. This strategy complicates responses from other nations and highlights the need for regional security integration to reduce the strategic value of such threats. The ongoing expert analysis and policy recommendations stress the importance of pre-emptive cooperation between governments and industries to enhance maritime situational awareness and mitigate risks.

As tensions persist, the implications for global energy and trade flows are significant. The need for diversified supply chains and enhanced maritime security architecture is more pressing than ever, as stakeholders seek to navigate the complexities of Iran's strategic positioning in the Strait of Hormuz.

• Shipping companies facing increased insurance costs and rerouted vessels.
• Energy exporters experiencing disruptions in oil and gas shipments.
• Consumers in Dubai and the Gulf region facing higher prices for imported goods.
• Local businesses reliant on stable supply chains for consumer products.

• Insurance premiums: Monitor fluctuations in war-risk insurance rates, as sustained high costs could indicate ongoing risks in the region.
• Shipping traffic: Keep an eye on commercial traffic volumes through the Strait of Hormuz; significant declines may signal heightened tensions.
• Regional security initiatives: Watch for developments in Gulf states' collaborative efforts to enhance maritime security and diversify trade routes.