SpaceX Valuation Hinges on Unlaunched Orbital Data Centers as Bernstein Raises Price Target to $268
What happened
Bernstein raised SpaceX's price target to $268, projecting that the company's multi-trillion-dollar valuation rests on unlaunched orbital AI data centers slated for late 2027.
The Context
* Power bottlenecks force orbit: Terrestrial AI infrastructure faces severe land, cooling, and grid constraints, prompting SpaceX to target continuous space-based solar power at 500 to 2,000 kilometer altitudes. * Terrestrial compute acts as a bridge: SpaceX plans to deploy 13 gigawatts of ground-based compute by year-end 2027, projecting $424 billion in terrestrial AI revenue by 2028 while orbital hardware undergoes development. * Hardware partnerships accelerate deployment: Teaming up with Nvidia for space-optimized systems, SpaceX targets its initial orbital data center launches for Q4 2027, with commercial scale scheduled for 2028 following Starship deployment tests.
The Number
— the maximum satellite count detailed in SpaceX's January 2026 FCC filing, representing a compute constellation designed to outscale terrestrial data center capacity.
Takeaway
Watch the FCC's regulatory review through 2027, as clearance for orbital compute will determine whether cloud infrastructure capital shifts permanently toward space-based providers.
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