Global Food Crisis Expected by 2026 Due to Middle East Conflict and Fertilizer Shortages

This crisis threatens to exacerbate existing hunger issues, particularly in vulnerable regions, and could lead to widespread socio-economic instability.

• Late February 2026: War involving Iran disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global fertilizer shipments.
• March 2026: Urea prices surge by 46%, and Russia halts 37% of global ammonium nitrate exports, worsening fertilizer shortages.
• April 2026: The World Food Programme warns that 363 million people are at risk of acute hunger by year-end, with additional cases linked to the Middle East conflict.

• Strait of Hormuz: This narrow waterway is vital for 30-34% of global fertilizer trade, making disruptions particularly impactful.
• Previous shocks: The ongoing effects of the Russia-Ukraine war have already strained grain and fertilizer markets since 2022.
• La Niña conditions: Forecasted weather patterns are expected to reduce crop yields in 2026, compounding the crisis.

The anticipated global food crisis is primarily driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict involving Iran that began in late February 2026. This conflict has led to the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global trade, particularly for fertilizers. Approximately 30-34% of the world's fertilizer shipments pass through this chokepoint, and any disruption can have cascading effects on agricultural production worldwide.

In March 2026, the situation worsened as Russia, a key exporter of fertilizers, announced a halt to 37% of its ammonium nitrate exports. This decision came on the heels of rising energy costs and ongoing supply chain disruptions stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war, which had already strained global grain and fertilizer markets since 2022. The combination of these factors has led to a significant surge in fertilizer prices, with urea prices increasing by 46% in just one month.

The World Food Programme has projected that by the end of 2026, 363 million people could be at risk of acute hunger, a staggering figure that underscores the severity of the situation. The crisis is particularly acute in regions like Africa and Asia, where food security is already fragile. The escalation of hostilities in the Middle East is expected to add an additional 45 million people to this alarming statistic.

Moreover, the forecasted La Niña weather patterns are anticipated to further reduce crop yields in 2026, compounding the challenges faced by farmers globally. Countries like Brazil, India, and various African nations are already feeling the pinch, as fertilizer shortages threaten their upcoming harvests. The implications of these shortages will become increasingly visible by August 2026, when the effects on crop yields will be more apparent.

In response to these challenges, the UAE government has conducted over 12,000 market inspections to ensure price stability and prevent gouging. They have assured the public of stable food supplies, although fresh produce stocks may only last about 10 days amid ongoing disruptions. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and Qatar are also taking measures to bolster their reserves, indicating a regional response to the impending crisis.

• Farmers: Particularly in Africa and Asia, who rely on fertilizers for crop yields.
• Consumers: Households in low-income regions facing rising food prices and potential shortages.
• Agricultural producers: Companies dependent on stable fertilizer supplies for production.
• Governments: Nations that import food and fertilizers, particularly those with limited reserves.

• Fertilizer prices: Monitor fluctuations in global fertilizer prices, as they will directly impact food production costs.
• Crop yield reports: Keep an eye on agricultural yield forecasts, especially from major producers like Brazil and India, to gauge the crisis's impact.
• International aid responses: Watch for announcements from organizations like the World Food Programme regarding aid initiatives aimed at mitigating hunger.