IATA Chief Warns of Prolonged Jet Fuel Supply Recovery Following Hormuz Reopening

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is crucial for global oil supply, impacting jet fuel prices and airline operations worldwide.

• April 8, 2026: IATA Director General Willie Walsh announced that jet fuel supply recovery will take months, even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
• April 7, 2026: A two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was announced, allowing for the potential reopening of the strait, which is vital for 20% of global oil trade.
• February 28, 2026: The Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed due to escalating conflict, leading to significant disruptions in jet fuel supply and soaring prices.

• 20% of global oil trade transits through the Strait of Hormuz, making it a critical chokepoint for energy supplies.
• Refinery disruptions in the Middle East have severely impacted jet fuel production, leading to increased prices and supply shortages.
• Airlines in Asia and the Middle East are already experiencing fare hikes and flight cancellations due to the ongoing fuel supply crisis.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis began on February 28, 2026, when U.S.-Israeli airstrikes prompted Iranian warnings and subsequent attacks on shipping. By March 2, the strait was officially closed, leading to a near-total halt in tanker traffic. This disruption severely impacted refining capacity across Gulf states, resulting in force majeure declarations and a spike in oil prices, which surged past $100 per barrel. Jet fuel costs doubled, causing Asian countries like China and Thailand to halt exports, while South Korea imposed caps on jet fuel prices.

On April 7, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire, which was tied to the safe reopening of the strait. However, Walsh's statement on April 8 highlighted that even with the reopening, recovery of jet fuel supply would take months due to the extensive damage to refining infrastructure. The anticipated resumption of crude oil flow may not translate into immediate jet fuel availability, as the refining process is complex and time-consuming.

The ongoing crisis has led to significant operational challenges for airlines. Emirates, for example, has reported fare hikes of up to 40%, while Air New Zealand has cut schedules and United Airlines has trimmed capacity by 5%. The UAE is even evaluating military options to ensure the safe reopening of the strait, indicating the high stakes involved. Other airline CEOs have echoed Walsh's concerns, predicting a prolonged stabilization period due to the damage incurred.

In Dubai, residents are feeling the effects of this crisis firsthand. Airfares have surged sharply, with a reported increase of over 130% in jet fuel costs. Flight cancellations and delays at Dubai International Airport (DXB) have left many passengers stranded, further complicating travel plans. The ripple effects of the crisis are evident as Gulf aviation gateways collapse under the weight of supply shortages.

• Airlines: Facing increased operational costs and reduced capacity, leading to fare hikes and schedule cuts.
• Travelers: Experiencing higher ticket prices and potential travel disruptions, particularly in the Middle East and Asia.
• Refineries: Struggling to recover from damage, impacting their ability to produce jet fuel and other refined products.
• Oil traders: Navigating volatile markets as prices fluctuate in response to geopolitical developments.

• Jet fuel prices: Monitor how prices adjust post-ceasefire and the timeline for recovery; this will directly impact airline operations and ticket costs.
• Refinery recovery: Watch for announcements regarding the restoration of refining capacity in the Middle East, which will be crucial for stabilizing supply.
• Geopolitical developments: Keep an eye on U.S.-Iran relations and any further military actions that could disrupt oil supply chains again.