US Equities Rise Following Disappointing Jobs Data Reducing Rate Hike Expectations

What happened
US equities closed higher on October 2, 2026, following weaker-than-expected September jobs data.
The Context
- Softer job growth: The Labor Department reported a nonfarm payroll increase of only 29,000 jobs, significantly below the 90,000 forecast.
- Rate hike probabilities drop: The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the October meeting fell to approximately 22.7 percent from 64.2 percent a week earlier.
- Market response: Major indices gained, with the Nasdaq Composite reaching an intraday record high, driven by rate-sensitive sectors.
The Number
— This is the number of jobs added in September, far below expectations, which directly impacts Federal Reserve policy and market sentiment.
Takeaway
Expect continued market volatility as investors adjust to shifting economic signals and rate hike probabilities.
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