Iran Can Influence Strait of Hormuz Through Selective Threats According to Hili Forum Experts

Iran's ability to exert control over the Strait of Hormuz poses significant risks to global energy markets and trade flows.

• On September 8, 2026, experts at the Hili Forum in Abu Dhabi warned that Iran can control the Strait of Hormuz through selective threats rather than outright closure.
• Targeted disruptions and elevated insurance costs have already led to a collapse in transit volumes by approximately 90%.
• Regional tensions following the US-Israel-Iran conflict have prompted calls for diversified supply chains and enhanced maritime security.

• The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil and gas shipments, with about 20% of the world's oil passing through it.
• Iran's strategy involves leveraging commercial risks to influence shipping without a full blockade, similar to tactics used by Houthi forces in the Red Sea.
• Gulf states are increasingly seeking alternative routes and security arrangements to mitigate risks associated with Iranian influence.

The recent panel discussion at the Hili Forum highlighted a strategic shift in how Iran can exert control over the Strait of Hormuz. Rather than closing the strait, which would harm its own economic interests, Iran has adopted a strategy of selective threats and disruptions. This approach allows Tehran to raise commercial risks for shipping companies, effectively deterring traffic without a physical blockade.

The backdrop to this situation is the ongoing regional tensions exacerbated by the 2026 US-Israel-Iran conflict, which has already seen missile and drone strikes targeting Gulf shipping. These incidents have led to a significant increase in war-risk insurance premiums, making it costlier for shipping companies to operate in the region. As a result, transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted by approximately 90%, according to analysis from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

Experts at the forum emphasized that Iran's tactics are not just about military might but also about economic leverage. By creating an environment of uncertainty and risk, Iran can influence global shipping patterns and energy prices. This has prompted Gulf states to explore diversification strategies, including alternative trade routes and energy exports via pipelines and eastern ports.

The implications of this situation extend beyond the immediate region. Elevated shipping costs and rerouted shipments are likely to affect global supply chains, leading to increased prices for consumers and businesses worldwide. The UAE, for instance, has activated alternative corridors like Fujairah to mitigate some of these disruptions, but the overall impact on trade remains significant.

As the situation evolves, experts recommend that businesses and governments adopt "just in case" supply chain strategies, invest in state-backed insurance, and enhance regional cooperation on maritime security. These measures aim to reduce the leverage that Iran holds over this critical chokepoint and ensure the stability of global trade flows.

• Shipping companies facing increased insurance costs and rerouted logistics.
• Energy importers experiencing higher prices due to elevated shipping risks.
• Consumers in regions reliant on imported goods, facing rising costs.
• Gulf states seeking to diversify trade routes and enhance security measures.

• Insurance premiums: Monitor changes in war-risk insurance rates, as sustained high costs could signal ongoing risks in the region.
• Shipping traffic: Keep an eye on transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz; significant fluctuations could indicate shifts in Iranian tactics or regional stability.
• Regional security arrangements: Watch for developments in multinational security collaborations among Gulf states, which could reshape maritime security dynamics.