Sudanese Civil War Continues with No Political Resolution in Sight

The Sudanese civil war is exacerbating one of the world's largest humanitarian crises, affecting global markets and regional stability.

• Fighting erupted on April 15, 2023, between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), leading to widespread devastation.
• Over 14 million people have been displaced, marking the largest displacement crisis globally, with tens of thousands of deaths reported.
• International mediation efforts have stalled, with recent conferences failing to include key parties, prolonging the conflict and humanitarian suffering.

• Power struggle origins: The conflict stems from a power struggle following the 2021 military coup that ousted a transitional civilian government, leading to tensions over military integration and resource control.
• External influences: Countries like the UAE and Egypt have been accused of prolonging the conflict by supplying arms and funding to the warring factions.
• Humanitarian impact: The ongoing war has triggered the world's largest humanitarian crisis, with funding for aid remaining critically low, under 40% of what is needed.

The Sudanese civil war, which began in April 2023, is rooted in a complex power struggle between the SAF, led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the RSF, led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti). This conflict escalated after the military coup in 2021 that dismantled a transitional civilian government, leading to fierce competition over military control and economic resources, particularly gold mines in Darfur.

As fighting erupted, initial RSF advances were met with heavy SAF airstrikes, resulting in a brutal stalemate. Despite various international mediation efforts, including the Jeddah talks and Quad initiatives, no significant political progress has been made. The humanitarian situation has deteriorated sharply, with over 14 million people displaced and tens of thousands dead, making it the world's largest displacement crisis.

External actors have played a significant role in prolonging the conflict. The UAE has been accused of supporting the RSF through arms supplies and funding, while Egypt and Iran have backed the SAF. This external involvement complicates the conflict, as it introduces additional layers of geopolitical interests that hinder resolution efforts. The recent Berlin conference, which pledged €1.3 billion in aid, excluded both warring parties, drawing criticism from the Sudanese government and highlighting the challenges of achieving a sustainable peace.

The humanitarian crisis is further exacerbated by the use of drone warfare, with 75% of recent civilian deaths attributed to imported UAVs. The ongoing violence has led to significant disruptions in Sudan's economy, particularly in gold exports, which have seen price volatility in regional markets. Humanitarian funding remains critically low, with less than 40% of the required aid being met, leaving millions in dire need of assistance.

• Sudanese families: Those relying on remittances from abroad are facing financial instability due to disrupted channels.
• Humanitarian organizations: NGOs and aid agencies struggle to meet the overwhelming needs of displaced populations amid funding shortages.
• Regional markets: Investors and businesses in neighboring countries are affected by gold price volatility and increased regional instability.

• International mediation efforts: Watch for any new initiatives or changes in the involvement of external actors, as these could influence the conflict's trajectory.
• Humanitarian funding levels: Monitor the response from international donors to the ongoing crisis, as increased funding could alleviate some humanitarian pressures.
• Military developments: Keep an eye on the military strategies employed by both SAF and RSF, particularly regarding drone warfare and external arms supplies, as these will impact civilian safety and conflict dynamics.