External actors exacerbate Sudan's civil war through arms and gold trade

The prolonged civil war in Sudan, fueled by external arms supplies and gold trade, poses significant risks to regional stability and global economic interests.

• Conflict escalated: Sudan's civil war began on April 15, 2023, as a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
• Humanitarian crisis: The war has displaced 14 million people, creating the world's largest displacement crisis according to the United Nations.
• External involvement: Countries like the UAE and Egypt are accused of supplying arms to the warring factions, complicating peace efforts.

• Post-revolution tensions: The conflict stems from tensions following Sudan's 2019 revolution and the 2021 military coup that dissolved a civilian-led government.
• Regional rivalries: Disputes over resources, particularly gold and access to the Red Sea, have drawn in external powers, exacerbating the conflict.
• Economic motivations: The UAE reportedly arms the RSF to secure economic dominance in gold and agriculture, while Egypt and others support the SAF to protect their Nile interests.

The civil war in Sudan is not merely a local conflict; it is a complex interplay of internal power struggles and external influences. The fighting erupted in April 2023, primarily in Khartoum, as the RSF initially seized control of the capital. However, the SAF regrouped and has made recent advances in Kordofan, while the RSF maintains control in Darfur, where they have been accused of committing atrocities.

The involvement of external actors complicates the situation significantly. The UAE is alleged to be supplying arms to the RSF through neighboring countries like Ethiopia and Chad, aiming to secure economic advantages in Sudan's lucrative gold and agricultural sectors. This support has allowed the RSF to sustain its operations despite international calls for ceasefires and humanitarian access.

On the other hand, Egypt, along with Turkey, Iran, and Russia, is reportedly backing the SAF, providing them with drones and weapons to secure their interests in the Nile region. This external backing has created a stalemate, as both factions are bolstered by foreign resources, making it difficult for either side to achieve a decisive victory.

The humanitarian crisis resulting from this conflict is dire. With 14 million people displaced, the situation has drawn international attention, leading to pledges of aid from various countries. However, the Sudanese government has rejected these offers, labeling them as "colonial," and demanding the RSF's surrender instead. The UN has called for an arms embargo, but enforcement remains a challenge as arms continue to flow into the region.

Moreover, the gold trade plays a crucial role in financing the RSF. Despite official denials, gold smuggling routes through the UAE have been reported, allowing the RSF to fund its operations. This trade not only sustains the conflict but also poses reputational risks for the UAE, which has been trying to position itself as a stabilizing force in the region.

As the war continues into its fourth year, the international community faces a complex challenge: how to address the humanitarian needs while navigating the geopolitical interests that prolong the conflict.

• Local civilians: Displaced populations face dire humanitarian conditions, with limited access to food, shelter, and medical care.
• Gold traders: Those involved in the gold trade may see fluctuations in market stability due to the ongoing conflict and international scrutiny.
• International aid organizations: NGOs and humanitarian groups are hindered in their efforts to provide assistance, impacting their operations and funding.

• International sanctions: Watch for potential sanctions targeting UAE networks involved in arms supplies and gold trade, which could impact their economy and international relations.
• Humanitarian access: Monitor developments regarding humanitarian access and aid delivery, as any improvements could alleviate some of the suffering caused by the conflict.
• Military developments: Keep an eye on military advancements by either the SAF or RSF, as shifts in control could lead to changes in the conflict dynamics and external involvement.