ACI Europe Warns of Jet Fuel Shortage Due to Hormuz Blockade

A systemic jet fuel shortage could lead to mass flight cancellations, impacting travel plans and the economy.

• April 9, 2026: Airports Council International Europe (ACI Europe) warns of an impending jet fuel shortage due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
• February 28, 2026: Iran blocks the strait, crucial for jet fuel imports, amid escalating conflict with the US and Israel.
• April 11, 2026: Jet fuel prices double globally, with European airlines considering capacity cuts as the summer travel season approaches.

• Over 40% of Europe's jet fuel shipments transit the Strait of Hormuz, making it a critical chokepoint for aviation fuel.
• Europe sources more than 60% of its jet fuel from the Middle East, heightening vulnerability compared to more diversified crude supplies.
• The ongoing US-Iran-Israel conflict has created a precarious situation, with military actions leading to the blockade and subsequent economic repercussions.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, initiated by Iran on February 28, 2026, has triggered a significant crisis in jet fuel supply for Europe. This strategic waterway is vital for global energy transport, handling over 40% of Europe's jet fuel shipments. The blockade arose from escalating tensions linked to the 2026 US-Iran-Israel conflict, where Iranian forces retaliated against military actions by the US and Israel, including strikes in Lebanon.

As the blockade persists, ACI Europe has raised alarms about the impending fuel shortages that could materialize within three weeks if the situation does not improve. With the peak summer travel season approaching, the potential for mass flight cancellations at major airports like Heathrow, Frankfurt, and Schiphol poses a serious threat not only to travelers but also to the broader economy reliant on aviation.

The economic implications are already visible, with jet fuel prices skyrocketing to $1,650 per tonne globally—an increase of 138% in Europe alone. Airlines are feeling the pinch, with UK carriers like Ryanair considering capacity cuts of up to 10% and others canceling routes altogether. The European Commission has yet to respond publicly to ACI Europe's warnings, but the urgency is palpable as energy traders note rising refining premiums and the risk of unhedged carriers facing operational paralysis.

In Dubai, the impact is equally pronounced. The city, a key transit hub, is experiencing elevated airfares and potential flight disruptions due to the blockade's effect on 21% of global seaborne jet fuel trade. Emirates Airlines has begun evacuating tourists amid regional tensions, and the doubling of jet fuel prices is raising travel costs for outbound flights to Europe, straining the local aviation-dependent economy.

• Travelers: Increased airfares and potential flight cancellations disrupt travel plans.
• Airlines: Capacity cuts and route cancellations affect profitability and operational viability.
• Cargo operators: Disruptions in air cargo operations impact supply chains and logistics.
• Economies: Regions reliant on tourism and aviation face economic downturns due to reduced travel activity.

• Airfare trends: Monitor changes in ticket prices as airlines adjust to fuel costs and potential shortages.
• Government responses: Watch for any policy measures from the European Commission regarding collective purchasing or state aid for airlines.
• Conflict developments: Keep an eye on the geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz, as any escalation could further impact fuel supplies.