External actors prolong Sudan's civil war into fourth year with arms supplies and resource exploitation

The civil war in Sudan is a critical flashpoint in a region where geopolitical interests intersect with humanitarian crises.

• Conflict erupted on April 15, 2023, between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) over power-sharing disputes.
• External actors like Egypt, Russia, Iran, and Turkey are supplying arms to SAF, while the UAE allegedly supports RSF through smuggling networks.
• As of April 2026, the war has led to a military stalemate, with 14 million people displaced and ongoing drone warfare escalating the violence.

• The war stems from a 2021 military coup that ousted a transitional government, igniting tensions between SAF and RSF.
• Geopolitical rivalries are intensifying as regional powers vie for control over Sudan's rich resources, including gold and access to the Nile.
• The conflict has transformed into a proxy war, with arms flowing through neighboring countries like Eritrea, Chad, and Libya, complicating peace efforts.

The civil war in Sudan is not merely a local conflict; it is a complex interplay of internal power struggles and external geopolitical interests. The SAF and RSF, once allies in a coup against the transitional government, have devolved into bitter rivals, each backed by different foreign powers. This division has created a military stalemate, with SAF controlling key urban centers like Khartoum and RSF holding sway in the western regions, particularly Darfur.

External actors are deeply entrenched in this conflict. Egypt supports SAF, viewing a stable Sudan as crucial for its national security, particularly regarding the Nile waters. Meanwhile, the UAE's alleged support for RSF is driven by economic interests, particularly in gold mining, which has become a lucrative trade. The UAE's involvement is not just about arms; it is about securing access to resources that can bolster its own economy.

The war has led to a staggering humanitarian crisis, with 14 million people displaced since the conflict began. The international community has responded with pledges of aid, but these efforts are hampered by the ongoing violence and the complexities of negotiating with factions that have established parallel administrations. The UN has warned of famine and potential genocide in Darfur, highlighting the urgent need for intervention.

Drone warfare has escalated dramatically, with over 1,000 strikes reported since the conflict began. Both SAF and RSF have adopted advanced drone technology, sourced from their respective allies, which has changed the dynamics of ground combat. This reliance on aerial strikes has not only increased the lethality of the conflict but has also made it more challenging for humanitarian organizations to operate in affected areas.

As the war drags on, the prospect of a negotiated settlement appears increasingly remote. The Quad nations (US, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE) have attempted mediation, but progress has stalled amid ongoing hostilities. The situation is further complicated by regional spillovers, with tensions rising along the borders of Chad and Ethiopia as they grapple with the influx of refugees and the destabilizing effects of the conflict.

• Local civilians: Facing displacement, violence, and humanitarian crises, with millions in need of aid.
• Regional governments: Strained by refugee influx and border tensions, particularly in Chad and Ethiopia.
• International businesses: Companies involved in gold and agricultural exports may face supply chain disruptions and increased costs.

• International mediation efforts: Watch for any breakthroughs or setbacks in negotiations involving the Quad nations, as these will influence the conflict's trajectory.
• Humanitarian aid responses: Monitor the effectiveness of international aid pledges and their impact on the humanitarian situation in Sudan.
• Resource exploitation trends: Keep an eye on the gold market and how illicit trade routes may evolve as the conflict continues, affecting global supply chains.