MSCI Implements New Rules That May Exclude Bitcoin Treasury Companies from Equity Indexes

This change could significantly alter passive investment flows into key digital asset firms, affecting their stock prices and market stability.

• MSCI approved new index eligibility rules on October 16, 2026, targeting non-operating companies.
• Strategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet (3350) could be ejected from global equity indexes effective November 30, 2026.
• Estimated stock outflows from Strategy's exclusion could reach $2.8 billion, according to JPMorgan analysts.

• MSCI previously excluded investment funds from its indexes but had temporary measures for companies with significant digital assets.
• A broader review began after a May 2026 simulation flagged several companies, including Strategy and Metaplanet, for potential removal.
• The new two-part test assesses substantial operating assets and financial ratios, with strict criteria for ineligibility.

On October 15-16, 2026, MSCI finalized its new index eligibility rules, which could have profound implications for companies primarily holding investments rather than operating businesses. The methodology change, effective after the close of trading on November 30, 2026, introduces a two-part test that evaluates both the presence of substantial operating assets and five financial ratios: expenses, cash flow, asset value changes, and external financing. If a company fails four or more of these ratios, it becomes ineligible for MSCI's Global Investable Market Indexes.

This shift is particularly significant for firms like Strategy and Metaplanet, which have been flagged based on September 2026 data. The final list of affected companies will be published on November 11, 2026, creating a sense of urgency and uncertainty in the market. The implications of this change are substantial, as passive investment funds that track MSCI indexes may be forced to sell their holdings in these companies, leading to increased selling pressure and potential stock price declines.

For instance, following the announcement, Strategy shares already experienced a decline of approximately 4.2%. The anticipated stock outflows from Strategy's exclusion could reach an estimated $2.8 billion, as noted by JPMorgan analysts. This situation highlights the vulnerability of companies heavily invested in digital assets, as they may face significant challenges in maintaining their market positions.

Moreover, the new rules have drawn criticism from executives like Michael Saylor, who argue that they discriminate against digital asset treasury companies. While the bitcoin holdings of these firms remain unaffected, the exclusion from MSCI indexes could hinder their ability to attract passive investment flows, which are crucial for maintaining stock prices and overall market health.

• Investors in Strategy and Metaplanet: They may experience immediate stock price volatility and potential losses.
• Passive investment funds: These funds may need to adjust their portfolios, leading to forced selling of affected stocks.
• Market analysts and financial institutions: They will need to reassess the valuation and risk profiles of flagged companies.

• Final list of affected companies: The publication on November 11, 2026, will clarify which firms are impacted, influencing market reactions.
• Stock performance of Strategy and Metaplanet: Monitor their share prices leading up to and following the November 30 deadline for potential volatility.
• Responses from digital asset advocates: Watch for any pushback or lobbying efforts from industry leaders against the new MSCI rules.