Goldman Sachs Reports Recovery of Oil Flows Through Strait of Hormuz to Two-Thirds of Pre-War Levels

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil trade, and its recovery affects supply chains and energy prices worldwide.

• Goldman Sachs reported that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded to 15-16 million barrels per day, about two-thirds of pre-war levels.
• This recovery follows a significant drop to 5-6 million barrels per day in March 2026 due to the ongoing US-Iran conflict.
• Adaptations by producers and shippers, including shadow fleets and ship-to-ship transfers, have helped mitigate disruptions.

• The US-Iran war, which began in February 2026, severely impacted navigation and exports through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting roughly one-fifth of global oil trade.
• Producers have shifted to alternative routes, such as Saudi pipelines and Iraqi exports, to maintain supply despite regional tensions.
• Oil prices have declined from over $120 per barrel in April 2026 to approximately $89 per barrel by late August, reflecting the partial recovery of supply.

The recent report from Goldman Sachs highlights a significant rebound in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy supply. As of late August 2026, exports of crude and refined products have reached approximately 15-16 million barrels per day, recovering to about two-thirds of pre-war levels. This recovery is notable given the severe disruptions caused by the US-Iran conflict, which began in February 2026 and led to a dramatic drop in oil flows to as low as 5-6 million barrels per day in March.

The recovery can be attributed to several adaptive strategies employed by Gulf oil producers and shipping companies. These include the use of shadow fleets—vessels that operate outside of traditional tracking systems—and ship-to-ship transfers, which allow for more flexible and discreet transport of oil. Such adaptations have proven essential in mitigating the broader disruptions to global supply chains, demonstrating the resilience of the Gulf oil sector.

Despite this recovery, the current export levels remain 7-8 million barrels below pre-conflict benchmarks, indicating that while progress has been made, the situation is still precarious. The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region continue to pose risks to stability, and traders are closely monitoring developments. The partial recovery of oil flows has contributed to a stabilization of global crude prices, which have seen a decline from their peak earlier in the year.

For consumers and businesses, this stabilization is crucial. Lower oil prices can lead to reduced fuel costs, which can have a cascading effect on transportation and logistics expenses. This is particularly relevant for regions like Dubai, where the economy is heavily reliant on imported energy. The recovery in Hormuz flows has eased immediate supply disruption risks for UAE energy markets, supporting relative stability in local fuel availability and contributing to downward pressure on global oil prices.

As the situation evolves, the ability of Gulf producers to maintain these levels of output will be critical. Continued adaptations and strategic shifts will determine the future of oil flows through this vital chokepoint, impacting not just regional economies but global markets as well.

• Energy producers in the Gulf region, who are adapting to maintain supply.
• Shipping companies that are implementing new strategies to navigate the conflict.
• Consumers and businesses in oil-importing countries, particularly in the UAE, who may see fluctuations in fuel prices.

• Geopolitical developments: Continued tensions between the US and Iran could impact oil flows and prices.
• Adaptation strategies: Monitor how Gulf producers and shipping companies evolve their operations in response to ongoing challenges.
• Global oil prices: Watch for fluctuations as supply stabilizes, which could affect economic conditions in oil-dependent regions.