Middle East crude oil exports surpass pre-war levels amid ongoing conflict

The resurgence of Middle East oil exports impacts global supply chains and pricing dynamics amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

• Middle East oil exports exceeded pre-war levels on 14 days in September 2026, reaching a seven-day moving average of 18.3 million barrels per day (bpd).
• Saudi Arabia increased loadings from both Red Sea and Gulf terminals after restoring pipeline capacity following attacks.
• Ongoing tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continue to pose risks to supply stability.

• The U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran began on February 28, 2026, disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global crude supply.
• Prior to the conflict, regional crude exports averaged around 18 million bpd, but attacks on infrastructure led to significant declines.
• Alternative logistics such as ship-to-ship transfers and pipeline recoveries have enabled the recent export increases, though sustainability remains uncertain.

The Middle East's oil export landscape has undergone significant shifts since the onset of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran in February 2026. Initially, the conflict severely disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for approximately 20% of global crude and LNG supply. This disruption led to a sharp decline in exports, with regional averages plummeting below pre-war levels.

However, by September 2026, a notable recovery emerged. Saudi Arabia, leveraging both Gulf and Red Sea routes, ramped up its oil exports significantly. The seven-day moving average of crude exports reached 18.3 million bpd, surpassing the pre-war average of around 18 million bpd on 14 separate days. This rebound was facilitated by the restoration of pipeline capacity following a series of attacks, particularly after the East-West pipeline was targeted in early September.

The increase in exports can be attributed to several factors. First, Saudi Arabia's strategic use of alternative logistics, including ship-to-ship transfers and enhanced operations at Red Sea ports, has allowed for greater flexibility in shipping routes. Second, the partial recovery of pipeline capacity has enabled more efficient transport of crude oil. Despite these gains, the situation remains precarious, as ongoing attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz continue to threaten supply stability.

Market reactions have been mixed. While oil prices have shown signs of stabilization or slight decline due to increased supply, the elevated risks from tanker attacks maintain a level of volatility. Analysts have noted that while the recovery alleviates tightness for Asian refiners, the long-term sustainability of these export levels is in question, given the persistent security threats.

The geopolitical landscape remains complex, with Iranian exports reportedly falling to zero due to U.S. sanctions. As Saudi Arabia seeks to regain market share, the dynamics of oil supply and pricing will continue to evolve, influenced by both regional conflicts and global demand patterns.

• Energy sector professionals: Increased supply may lead to fluctuating prices, impacting operational costs.
• Asian refiners: They benefit from the alleviation of tight supply but face uncertainty regarding long-term availability.
• Local economies in Dubai and the UAE: Stabilized oil flows can support economic activity and moderate price volatility.

• Tanker attack frequency: Monitoring the number and impact of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz will indicate ongoing risks to supply stability.
• Saudi export strategies: Observing how Saudi Arabia adjusts its export levels in response to market conditions will provide insights into future pricing trends.
• Geopolitical developments: Any shifts in the U.S.-Israeli-Iranian conflict could significantly alter the oil supply landscape.