Gulf oil exports recover to 94% of normal levels through Hormuz Shuttle model

The recovery of Gulf oil exports is crucial for global energy markets, affecting supply chains and pricing structures worldwide.

• Gulf oil exports rebounded to approximately 94% of normal levels by late September 2026, according to Al Watan.
• ADNOC's 'Hormuz Shuttle' model facilitated this recovery through ship-to-ship transfers, adopted by Saudi Aramco and Kuwaiti entities.
• Brent crude prices stabilized near $96 per barrel, reflecting a partial normalization of the market.

• US-Iran conflict: The conflict that began in February 2026 severely disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a significant drop in Gulf oil exports.
• Adaptive shipping model: ADNOC's innovative shipping model allowed for flexibility in oil transport, mitigating the impact of geopolitical tensions.
• Refined products lag: While crude oil exports have recovered, refined product exports remain at only 50-58% of prior levels, indicating ongoing supply constraints.

The Gulf oil export recovery is a direct response to the geopolitical disruptions caused by the US-Iran conflict, which began in February 2026. This conflict led to a dramatic decline in oil exports, plummeting to lows of 5-6 million barrels per day in March and 15-16 million bpd by late August. In response, oil producers in the region, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, had to adapt quickly to maintain their export levels.

ADNOC pioneered the 'Hormuz Shuttle' model in May 2026, which involved using Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) for initial loading followed by ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. This innovative approach allowed for the rerouting of oil shipments away from the conflict zone, effectively bypassing the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. By September, this model had been adopted by Saudi Aramco and Kuwaiti oil companies, leading to a total of 116 tankers involved in the operation, including 23 from Bahri, the National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia.

Analyst Alexander Stahl from Burggraben Research reported that by September 30, Gulf oil exports had recovered to 94% of baseline levels, with Goldman Sachs noting that exports reached 23.3 million bpd, matching 2025 averages. Crude oil accounted for 90% of this rebound, highlighting the resilience of the crude market despite the challenges faced.

However, the recovery is not uniform across all oil products. Refined product exports, such as diesel and gasoline, have only recovered to about 50-58% of their previous levels, according to analyses from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. This discrepancy indicates that while crude oil flows have stabilized, the market for refined products remains constrained, which could lead to higher prices for consumers.

The operational costs associated with the new shipping model, including higher tanker insurance and logistical expenses, may also contribute to elevated energy costs in the region. As a result, while the recovery of Gulf oil exports is a positive development for global energy markets, it comes with trade-offs that could affect pricing and availability of refined products.

• Oil producers: Companies like ADNOC and Saudi Aramco benefit from increased export levels and revenue.
• Shipping companies: Firms involved in the 'Hormuz Shuttle' model gain from increased shipping activity and demand.
• Consumers: Individuals and businesses may face fluctuating energy prices due to the recovery dynamics in crude versus refined products.
• Regional economies: Countries reliant on oil exports for economic stability will see improved conditions, but may also face higher logistics costs.

• Refined product export recovery: Monitor the recovery rates of refined products, as this will impact consumer prices and market stability.
• Geopolitical developments: Keep an eye on US-Iran relations, as any escalation could disrupt the current recovery trajectory.
• Oil price fluctuations: Watch Brent crude prices for signs of volatility, which could indicate shifts in supply-demand dynamics.