Brent and WTI Crude Post Second Weekly Decline as IEA Flags Q4 Supply Surplus Amid Easing Iran Conflict Premium
What happened
Global crude benchmarks fell roughly 2.5% for the week ending November 13, 2026, marking back-to-back weekly declines as supply surplus forecasts outweighed regional Middle East shipping risks.
The Context
- Surplus projections overtake scarcity fears: The International Energy Agency expects a worldwide supply surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026 as non-OPEC output increases and Middle Eastern export volumes gradually recover.
- Geopolitical risk premiums ease: Even with an ongoing nine-month conflict between the U.S. and Iran maintaining friction in the Strait of Hormuz, immediate fears of escalation have settled into a priced-in baseline.
- Prices retreat from peaks: Brent crude settled at $95.84 per barrel while West Texas Intermediate closed at $88.56, extending the prior week's double-digit percentage drops of 16% and 13% respectively.
The Number
— the unexpected weekly build in U.S. commercial crude inventories reported by the EIA, confirming that domestic stockpiles are outpacing industrial consumption and reinforcing downward pressure on spot fuel contracts.
Takeaway
Expect baseline enterprise operating expenses and maritime freight surcharges to soften across the next quarter, provided export corridors through regional trade hubs avoid fresh direct disruptions.
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